Preseason games are a crucial time for clubs. Before the start of a new demanding season, players need to get into their best physical shape. Managers have the chance to experiment with tactics and test lineups in matches where the results don’t matter. But what information can bettors extract from such games? Read on to find out in this analysis from Pinnacle.
The Importance of Preseason Games
During preseason matches, new players get the opportunity to integrate into the team and adapt to their teammates’ style of play. This is a critical period where clubs try to gather all their resources to better prepare for the upcoming season.
Additionally, clubs often embark on profitable overseas tours, aiming to attract new fans. The more prestigious their opponents, the better. Of course, this was not possible during the shortened preparation period in the summer of 2020. Over the past two years, each Premier League team played an average of six preseason games, with only three teams playing fewer than five matches.
While it’s possible to bet on the outcomes of friendlies, predicting the course of the game—considering the factors mentioned above (including players deliberately avoiding injuries)—is nearly impossible. So, can bettors gain any useful insights from summer friendlies to predict how a team will perform over the next nine months of the season?
The Impact of Preseason Games on the Start of the Season
As with any trend, there are examples that support your theory and others that make it seem pointless. Out of 34 Premier League teams that played preseason matches in 2018 and 2019, 19 teams (56%) saw a change in their form that carried into the following season.
Let’s look at the last two summer periods and see what they tell us about the subsequent Premier League seasons. Since three teams are relegated each year, 17 teams remain in the league and transition from the previous season to the next. Therefore, we can evaluate the performance of 34 teams based on their preseason games in 2018 and 2019.
First, let’s check whether the average points per game (PPG) for these teams increased in their summer games compared to the previous season. For 23 teams, this number improved, while it worsened for 11 teams.
We are particularly interested in the first six matches of the new season. Experience shows that this is a crucial period, often determining a team’s likelihood of staying in the league after all 380 matches are played.
Of the 23 teams that improved their performance in summer compared to the previous season, 12 teams also showed better results in the first six matches of the new season. For teams whose performance declined during the preseason, the correlation was even stronger: seven out of 11 teams also played worse in their first six matches.
Combining these two examples, we see that for 56% of teams (19 out of 34), the change in summer form compared to the previous season carried over into the new season.
But what about the remaining 15 teams? These teams experienced two different outcomes. For 11 teams, their improved summer form turned out to be a “false signal” as their PPG in the first six matches of the new season was worse than in the previous season.
For the remaining four teams, their preseason form worsened, but at the start of the new season, they improved compared to the previous season. Among these teams were Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea, which is logical. Major teams often participate in friendlies but allow their top stars to rest after representing their countries in summer tournaments. It’s no surprise that their preseason results aren’t always stellar. By the way, if you’d like to test your sports knowledge and analytical skills, we recommend visiting the bookmaker rankings via this link: https://odds2win.bet/bonuses/pakistan and claim a personal bonus for your first deposit from one of the reliable sports betting sites.
The Impact of Preseason Games on the Entire Season
If we look at how many teams maintain the form they showed in preseason throughout the following season, we find that 21 teams did not change their level of play, while 19 teams maintained their improved form for the first six games of the season.
The breakdown is even less balanced: 14 teams saw their PPG increase in both the summer games and the subsequent season compared to the previous season, while seven clubs saw their PPG decrease in both the summer and the new season.
Overall, in the past two seasons, 15 clubs either improved or declined in their preseason form compared to the previous season and maintained this form both in their first six matches and throughout all 38 games of the season.
The group of five teams whose form declined and remained poor is perhaps the most interesting, as four of them sacked their managers in the first half of the season. José Mourinho left Manchester United in December 2018, while Mauricio Pochettino, Unai Emery, and Marco Silva were dismissed before Christmas in 2019. Whether bettors should take preseason results into account is debatable, but it seems club presidents do. The publication was interesting and useful! Would you like to get predictions for a football match? Follow the link https://odds2win.bet/predictions/football and check out the latest analysis for upcoming football matches. Bet wisely!
The Impact of Preseason Games on the Golden Boot Race
For a large number of players, preseason form does not impact their performance once the season begins, but our research uncovered one interesting case.
After December in the 2018–2019 season, Danny Ings failed to score a single league goal. However, the three goals he scored in friendlies before the following season likely boosted his confidence. He ended the season in second place in the Premier League’s Golden Boot race.
With odds as high as 200/1 before the 2019–2020 season, it would have been a highly unlikely, yet potentially profitable bet. Of course, not every player who scores in preseason friendlies will win the Golden Boot, but these goals can sometimes spark motivation in certain players.
Conclusion
Overall, it’s impossible to confidently predict how summer friendlies will affect players and teams in the new season. However, enough examples suggest that preseason matches shouldn’t be completely overlooked.